Goals Review: February 2020
So the COVID-19 (it has a proper name now) has got the markets rattling, and we've been seeing a general decline in most counters throughout this month.
As such there were more opportunities to accumulate more shares.
More nibbling happened, and I'm also closely monitoring where the prices are headed these few days. Buying the dip? Yeah, I guess so.
Going a bit deeper, I find myself questioning this more often now:
"Is it a good time to buy, or just should we just hold out for a few more months?"
It doesn't take a genius to know that 2020 would most likely be a not-so-good year for us, especially for businesses and the wider economy in general. In fact, it says so clearly here:
For 2020, MTI has downgraded the GDP growth forecast to “-0.5 to 1.5 per cent”, with growth expected to come in at around 0.5 per cent, the mid-point of the forecast range.
- from: SingStat (https://www.singstat.gov.sg/-/media/files/news/gdp4q2019.pdf)
In addition, as profits plunge, many other companies have already started announced cuts in jobs, salaries, etc. the last week (Temasek, SIA, HSBC, etc). I wonder how many more will do so in the coming months. This will most likely get worst, as I believe that we're not even in the middle of the whole outbreak yet*. As things drag along, as I think they will, the small business owners and those in over-leveraged positions will feel the burn first. And if some sort of global domino-effect starts, then we'd probably find ourselves back in another (financial) crisis**.
*a very professional opinion based solely on my gut feel.
** again, a very professional opinion based solely on my gut feel.
Markets will then tank, etc, and the streets will be again bathed in blood. Should we still accumulate now then, knowing that there's a pretty high chance that the current prices are not the lowest it can go to?
I don't think anyone actually knows the answer.. well, we could make an educated guess, but
I did nibble on just a bit this month::
1 lot of DBS @ $25.03
10 lots of Guocoland @ $1.80
(update: I I
Yup, see? Both share prices have already gone lower than what I originally bought them for.
But it's okay, it's something I won't lose sleep over.
No selling this month.
Rough monthly dividend from equity: $195.98.
Dividends And Portfolio Allocation
Feb 2019 Dividends: $19 :( very few of my counters go xD in the first quarter.
With the acquisition of more DBS and Wilmar, both have overtaken AAREIT as my top 2 holdings. I mentioned last month that I wanted to take some time to trim down my non-performing counters, but due to the coronavirus I felt that I'll just leave it for now until the situation improves.
So the big one for me this month was that I got my annual appraisal with the boss and not only was I one of the top-performers this year, I also received a promotion! That was great news as I've been giving my best to the workplace over the last couple years and it feels great to get some sort of acknowledgement for it. What was also good is that the year-end bonus helped beef up my warchest by a bit and I'm in a better position to take advantage of what Mr Market will offer, if things should happen.
On the books side, I did not fare as well as last month. I only managed to complete 2 books.
The Hunt for Red October - Tom Clancy (387 pages)
Give and Take - Adam Grant (320 pages)
Crazy Rich Asians - Kevin Kwan (in progress, 29 pages)
Total: 736 pages
I guess it's still more than what the average Singaporean reads, but I'm still not satisfied. I'm don't want to compare against anyone else but myself. The reason why I read so little this month is because I dedicated a lot of time to picking up Machine Learning / Reinforcement Learning. You could say it's for a 'CCA' that I'm doing at work. It has taken up a lot of my time but I feel it's a good investment for the future.